A/HRC/17/33 grown. A significant number of countries could lose one third to one half of their capacity for agricultural production over the coming decades. Countries in equatorial Africa may lose as much as 60 per cent13. 50. All regions of the globe are projected to be adversely effected by climate change, but less developed regions and countries are disproportionally affected because of their geographic location, their dependency on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and natural resources, and a low adaptive capacity due to low levels of human, financial and natural resources, as well as limited institutional and technological capability.14 From a biophysical perspective, these countries are geographically disadvantaged since more are located in lower latitudes where predicted temperature increases, longer dry seasons, and water scarcity will greatly restrict their capacity to grow food and raise livestock. The humanitarian crises that could result from food scarcity would be further exacerbated by the lack of clean water, spread of diseases, and potential conflicts.15 In the light of the predicted environmental, economic and social impacts, populations are likely to be displaced or to migrate in order to survive. How temporary or permanent this displacement of migration will be and where populations will go is still uncertain, although much of the movements, at least initially, are likely to be internal. 51. Finally, the Special Rapporteur would like to remind that, as previously mentioned, most environmental migration is likely to occur within and between developing countries where receiving capacities are likely to be very limited. Therefore, he deems it important to further study and discuss the phenomenon of migration and its link to environment and climate change so as to be able to pinpoint the challenges that lie ahead, how best to address them and how to ensure the human rights of these migrants in the wake of this amplifying phenomenon.16 It would also be useful to consider new data-collection systems and to build capacities to make better use of existing data sources in some of the least developed countries of the world which will be most affected by climate change. 52. It may also be difficult for policy makers to manage migration flows in countries where governance structures are still very weak. In such countries, it is necessary to start new research in order to evaluate the current capacities for national governments to implement existing and/or new frameworks and policies. The actual policy discussions tend to focus on questions such as how best to provide emergency assistance to those who are displaced, how to reduce disaster risk and how to improve the legal and normative framework for the protection of the displaced. However, it is equally important to consider movements due to slow-onset events and frame the issue both in terms of displacement and more voluntary movement.17 Therefore, the Special Rapporteur deems it important that these issues be further developed in the future, by new research tools and by exploring the capacity of Governments and civil society at the national level to implement both protection policies and adaptation strategies, always taking into account the human rights of migrants in this specific context. As the High Commissioner for Human Rights mentioned in her 13 14 15 16 17 12 See note 5 above , p. 321. See Migration and Climate Change, International Organization for Migration research Series No. 31, IOM. Available at: http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/index.php?main_page=product_info&products_id=96; see also Climate Change and International Migration, Background Paper WMR 2010, IOM See for example the 2010 Report of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General on internally displaced persons to the Human Rights Council (A/HRC/12/21), paras. 41-44. See also the 2006 report of the Special Rapporteur on the right to food to the General Assembly (A/61/306), paras. 36-37 See note 5 above, p. 32., “The identification, evaluation and monitoring of policy responses”.