A/HRC/17/33 in certain parts of the world and do not take account of the measures that could be taken to adapt to these changes. Despite the lack of precise figures, there is now little doubt that parts of the planet are now becoming less habitable due to factors such as climate change, deterioration of agricultural lands, desertification, and water pollution. The number of natural disasters has more than doubled over the last two decades, and more than 20 million people were displaced by sudden-onset climate-related natural disasters in 2008.6 Further climate change, with global temperatures expected to rise between 2 and 5 degrees centigrade by the end of this century, could have a major impact on the movement of people.7 1. The importance of further study on the impacts of environmental and climate change on human mobility 48. The Special Rapporteur would like to remind that the movement of people as a result of changes in the environment is not a new phenomenon. People have been moving in response to changes in their environment, often seasonally, for centuries.8 However, the link between migration and the environment and its wider interlinkages had been largely ignored by migration experts and policy makers until recently. For example, in the 2005 report of the Global Commission on International Migration, there is barely a mention of the topic.9 Part of the reason may be the fact that there has been little consensus over the years among researchers as to whether environmental migration is a distinct form of migration worthy of special study. Nevertheless, pursuant to several high-level conferences, expert meetings, and new research10 published over the last few years, the Special Rapporteur noticed that this issue has taken hold. Experts have been increasingly raising awareness of the linkages between the environment and human mobility and the importance of unifying these issues at all levels of policy dialogue and cooperation – local, regional, national and global. 49. According to some studies, climate change is expected to make the world generally warmer, the rainfall more intense, and could result in more extreme weather events such as droughts, storms and floods.11 These changes, in turn, will likely result in further population movements. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global warming will lead to major shifts in weather patterns, ocean currents, and possibly ecosystems.12 In addition to higher temperatures and rising sea levels, scientists forecast that rainfall will become more variable, drought more prevalent and prolonged. This will exacerbate soil erosion and desertification around the world. In some geographic regions, these events will combine with a higher incidence of rapid-onset disasters in the wet season, causing more violent and destructive storm surges, floods, and hurricanes. The changes in climate now anticipated will disrupt and perhaps permanently alter how and where food is 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Monitoring Disaster Displacement in the Context of Climate Change; OCHA, IDMC and Norwegian Refugee Council, 2009, see also the Inter-Agency Standing Committee Operational Guidelines on the Protection of Persons in Situations of Natural Disasters, IASC, revised version 2010 See note 5 above. The Age of Migration, International Population Movements in the Modern World, Stephen Castles and Mark J. Miller, Fourth Edition, p. 3 See www.gcim.org/attachements/gcim-complete-report-2005.pdf See in particular the UNFPA-IOM Expert Seminar on Migration and the Environment, Bangkok, 2007, IOM, UNU-EHS, UNEP; the Munich re Foundation Research Workshop on Migration and the Environment, Munich, 2008 and 2009; and the Environment, Forced Migration and Social Vulnerability (EFMSV) conference, Bonn, 2008. See note 5 above, p. 14, “The impacts of environmental and climate change on human mobility”. See IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 at: www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html 11