A/65/287 from chronic grievances to violent conflict. It may be due to numerous factors, such as the building up of pressure over time to intolerable levels; regime change (many studies have found a link between political transitions and increased incidence of conflict); the emergence of a leader committed to mobilizing the community; or a specific, highly symbolic trigger, perhaps linked to an affront to a community’s identity such as the denial of status to a minority language. 12 31. For the above-mentioned reasons, it has been argued that early warning systems need to combine the collection of disaggregated quantitative data with more in-depth qualitative analysis. 13 Such a course of action would enable the identification of complex interactions between political, social and economic factors that help decide whether violent conflict will break out, and if so, when. II. Protection of minority rights: a national tool for avoiding violent conflicts 32. Conflict prevention is not the sole positive outcome of respect for minority rights. Societies flourish when all voices are heard, when all opinions are considered; when all citizens participate; and when the talent that exists in all communities is enabled to contribute to political institutions. Inclusion is good for societies as a whole, not just for those previously left out. Consequently, creating the conditions for the effective participation of minorities should be considered by States as an integral aspect of good governance and a key priority in their efforts to ensure equality and non-discrimination. 33. States are at times, however, diverted from acting consistently with this inclusive approach to national self-interest. Minorities are too often seen as a threat to the State and/or national unity. Governments may hold the erroneous views that national unity is fragile or that new States can be achieved only through the denial or disregard of distinctive aspects of the identity of minorities; that demands by minorities for an equal voice in policymaking will dissipate central authority; that respect for minority languages produces cleavages between ethnic groups or translates into prohibitive government expenditures; or that culturally defined production methods have no place in a modern economy. 34. In such situations Governments may become nervous when ethnic, religious or linguistic groups attempt to assert their identity. There may be an assumption that what those groups want is to separate themselves from the State. However, many conflicts involving minorities start as peaceful demands to be included in the society on the basis of equal treatment. 14 35. Many States are engaged in ongoing efforts to accommodate the interests of diverse communities. Finding the optimal arrangement may be a dynamic process __________________ 12 13 14 10-48298 Denial of status to minority language has been linked to the onset of conflict in both the Atlantic Coast region of Nicaragua in the 1980s and in Sri Lanka in the 1950s. See S. Brunnegger, From Conflict to Autonomy in Nicaragua: Lessons Learnt (London, Minority Rights Group International, 2007). J. A. Goldstone, “Using quantitative and qualitative models to forecast instability”, Special Report No. 204 (Washington, D.C., United States Institute of Peace, 2008). See Negotiating Justice? Human Rights and Peace Agreements (Geneva, International Council on Human Rights Policy, 2006), chap. VII. 9