Graph 1: Maize production estimates across Eastern and Southern Africa (Source: BFAP, 2016) To calculate the maximum price that a farmer can pay for a weaned calf, maize is the most important determining price factor used by feedlots. The summer rains only arrived in January 2016, which was too late for most of the maize-producing regions in South Africa, as planting late increases a farmer’s risk for frost damage early in the winter. In case of regions that were able to plant later in the season, yields will most probably be lower than what would have been the case if planting started in the optimal window7. Table 1 provides a brief summary of the 2015 maize crop yield (total tonnes harvested) and expected yield (total tonnes harvested) for 2016. Maize imports for 2015 stood at a mere 980 000 tonnes; however, this may increase substantially to 6 million tonnes (depending on white maize availability) for 2016/178. Should this quantity of maize be imported, harbour and rail/road infrastructure will be subject to extreme pressure. In fact, there is reasonable doubt that South Africa will be able to 7 Maré, F. & Willemse, J. (2016). Expected implications of the 2015 drought on the red meat industry. Available at http://rpofs.co.za/images/nuus/2016/Expected-implications-of-the-2015-drought-on-thered-meat-industry.pdf. 8 Ibid.