staples such as maize meal have already been subject to shelf price increases
of between 30% and 40%. As the purchasing power of consumers is reduced,
they will have less money to buy even less food. And as poverty and
malnutrition will increase, that foundations for social unrest are laid.
Economic multipliers show that a 1% drop in output in the agricultural sphere
will cause a 1,5% drop in output in the larger economy. This multiplier is closer
to 4 in rural areas. What follows is that severe economic hardship in rural areas
and depopulation of these areas will be on the horizon.
Whereas the South African economy labour multiplier is calculated at 8, the
agriculture’s labour multiplier is calculated at 24,1 – much higher than the other
sectors of the economy. From this follows that a decrease in agricultural output
will lead to more unemployment compared to the rest of the economy. This is
already reflected in existing figures: By November 2016, 23 000 people would
have lost their jobs due to the ongoing drought.
Some would say that this is an over-dramatization or an overstatement of the current
situation – I assure you that it is not. The impact of the drought will have severe
consequences in rural areas and on farms; however, this will very quickly spread to
the rest of the economy and influence the consumer directly. Without substantial
support to enable farmers to qualify for production loans or to supply sufficient fodder
for livestock by the end of 2016, more dire consequences will follow and escalate into
2017 and 2018.
The risks to social instability are at an elevated level. Coupled to a government with
dismal policy skills and economic insight, we can expect 2017 to be characterised by
more protests and unrests.
If this problem is not addressed in time, South Africa will stare a humanitarian crisis in
the face. Most South Africans will be unable to afford basic food products and poverty,
malnourishment and hunger will be at an unprecedented level.
I thank you for your time.