A/77/189 3.5 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. 16 43. Many of the expanding urban areas are located in low-lying coastal areas, already threatened by sea-level rise. The confluence of these factors has led the World Bank to predict that the collective South Asian economy (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka) will lose 1.8 per cent of its annual gros s domestic product owing to climate change by 2050. 17 While slow-onset processes and effects are a key factor for migration, it is difficult to predict or even know the number of people who will move in any given geographical area. This is due in part to a lack of data generally and to the particular difficulty of isolating slow -onset or gradual environmental change as a driver of migration. This difficulty stems from the complex relationship between environmental change and migration, the latter being infl uenced and the former being compounded by demographics, poverty, governance and other social, economic and political factors. Those challenges, and the risks posed by slow onset effects, mean that effective mechanisms to protect rights and long -term planning and solutions are required. 44. The Pacific region constitutes approximately one fifth of the Earth’s surface and includes the large island States of Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea, as well as 22 countries and territories across the Federa ted States of Micronesia, Melanesia and Polynesia. According to the available data, 90 per cent of the population of the small island States and territories of Oceania live within 5 km of the coast. 18 As for the small coral atoll nations of Tokelau and Tuv alu, the entire population lives within 1 km of the ocean. With a largely coastal population, the Oceania region is highly vulnerable to climate change -related migration. While economic and social factors remain the primary reasons for migration, climate change-related migration associated with the loss of land owing to coastal erosion and sea-level rise, the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events and the loss of traditional livelihoods are increasingly emerging as contributing component s of the decision to migrate. Internal relocation, both on a temporary and permanent basis, remains the most common form of climate-related mobility within the region. 45. Despite the fact that the small island developing States of the Pacific region contribute minimally to global carbon emissions, they are disproportionately experiencing the adverse effects of climate change. Coastal populations are increasingly vulnerable to acute risks, such as natural disasters, and chronic climate related risks, including coastal erosion, salinization of freshwater sources and sealevel rise. In general, the adverse effects of climate change are threatening the availability of food and fresh water and affecting the productivity of ecosystems, including reef and fisheries resources. The ocean, which for so long has been a source of fulfilment and nourishment, is increasingly threatening the lives and livelihoods of coastal populations. 3. Marginalized individuals and groups 46. Climate change disproportionately affects women, girls, boys, young people, persons with disabilities, older persons, lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) persons, minorities, indigenous peoples, people living in poverty and the least economically secure. The impact of natural disasters does not affect everyone equally. Marginalized people are often highly vulnerable to natural disasters, as they are more likely to be compelled to move into the most vulnerable areas as a result of unaffordable land and housing markets. Natural disasters and post-disaster events __________________ 16 17 18 22-11278 Submission by the Center for Justice and International Law and Franciscans International. John Podesta, “The climate crisis, migration, and refugees” (Brookings, 2019). See https://www.britannica.com/place/Pacific-Islands. 11/23