A/67/299 43. Third, if current greenhouse gas emission trends continue, small-island, lowlying developing States, such as Tuvalu, the Maldives and Kiribati, may be lost to sea level rise, rendering their inhabitants stateless. Some countries, including Tuvalu, are already negotiating agreements with their neighbours to relocate their populations. 14 Other States such as the Maldives have started saving to buy land for its population in the future. 15 44. Fourth, climate change in polar regions is occurring at a quicker pace. The sea ice cover is decreasing and the permafrost is melting, leading to accelerated erosion, significant flooding and changes in hunting or fishing capabilities. Many indigenous communities in Alaska and Canada, for instance, are located on the shoreline, and some are already in the process of resettling. 16 45. Fifth, many other regions are now affected by sudden and extreme natural disasters, and “even societies with high adaptive capacity remain vulnerable to climate change, variability and extremes”.8 Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana and bushfires in Australia, for instance, illustrate that no society is immune. 3. Where are climate-change-induced migrants moving to? 46. Though it is hard to predict precisely the patterns of where climate-changeinduced migrants will move, current research indicates that much climate related displacement is likely to take place within national borders and that those most acutely vulnerable will often not be in a position to migrate internationally. Moreover, to date, event driven displacements have tended to be short-lived, with many returning to the source location once the event has receded. However, those trends may or may not continue, as much will depend on the severity and nature of future climate related conditions. Furthermore, the Special Rapporteur is aware that there are some indications of increased movement of environmentally induced migrants across international borders. 17 47. Be it within or beyond borders, where migration is a spontaneous and unplanned event there is a risk that a large number of environmentally induced migrants will move towards other more exposed places, such as low-lying areas or to cities that themselves face threats from environmental change. 18 Furthermore, environmentally induced migrants will travel only as far as their resources allow __________________ 14 15 16 17 18 12-46071 Brad Crouch, “Tiny Tuvalu in ‘save us’ plea over rising seas”, Adelaide, Australia, Sunday Mail, 5 October 2008. Andrew Revkin, “Maldives Considers Buying Dry Land if Sea Level Rises”, New York Times, 10 November 2008; Ben Doher, “Climate Change Castaways Consider to Move to Australia”, The Sydney Morning Herald, 7 January 2012. See also report of the Special Rapporteur on the human rights of internally displaced persons, Mission to Maldives (A/HRC/19/54/Add.1). Robin Bronen, “Forced migration of Alaskan indigenous communities due to climate change: creating a human rights response”, in Environment, Forced Migration and Social Vulnerability, Tamer Afifi and Jill Jäger eds. (Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2010), p. 87. See Shuaizhang Feng, Alan B. Krueger and Michael Oppenheimer, “Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico-United States cross-border migration”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2010); see also Stefan Alscher, “Environmental Factors in Mexican Migration: The Cases of Chiapas and Tlaxcala”, in Environment, Forced Migration and Social Vulnerability, Tamer Afifi and Jill Jäger eds. (Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2010), p. 171. Foresight report on migration and global environmental change (Government Office for Science, London, 2011). 11