G LO B A L E D U C AT I O N M O N I TO R I N G R E P O R T 2 0 1 6
SUMMARY
Projections: How will expanding
education affect sustainable
development outcomes?
FIG U R E 7 :
PROJECTING GLOBAL EDUCATIONAL
ATTAINMENT TO 2030 AND BEYOND
Projected attainment rates of 15- to 19-year-olds by education
level and country income group, 2010-2080
Not even universal primary completion will be achieved by
2030 in low and middle income countries on past trends
T
2080
2070
2060
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
Primary attainment rate (%)
25
Lower secondary education
100
75
50
2050
2060
2070
2080
2060
2070
2080
2040
2030
2050
100
2020
0
2010
25
Upper secondary education
75
50
0
2040
25
2030
Education can boost per capita income by raising labour
productivity and accelerating technological development
and adoption. In low income countries, universalizing upper
secondary completion would increase per capita income by
75% by 2050. Even if achieving SDG target 4.1 is not sufficient
to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030, it could bring poverty
elimination forward 10 years.
Low income
Lower middle income
Upper middle income
High income
2020
Achieving universal upper secondary completion by 2030 would
reduce the under-5 mortality rate in sub-Saharan Africa from 68
to 54 deaths for every 1,000 live births by 2030 and from 51 to 38
deaths for every 1,000 live births by 2050. Since children’s health
can benefit from community-level effects and the diffusion of
healthy practices and behaviours, child mortality might drop
even more than these estimates suggest.
50
2010
While the projection exercise suggests that the SDG education
target may not be met, even modest progress can make a
big difference to the next generation. To gain a sense of how
education expansion contributes to other SDGs, the GEM Report
analyses how education can help save lives (by reducing infant
and child mortality and increasing adult life expectancy), lift
people and countries out of poverty (by increasing aggregate
national economic growth and reducing absolute extreme
poverty) and reduce disaster vulnerability.
75
0
Lower secondary attainment rate (%)
FORECASTING EFFECTS ON DEVELOPMENT
OUTCOMES
Primary education
100
Upper secondary attainment rate (%)
he 2016 GEM Report projects prospects for achieving
universal secondary completion by 2030 using a globally
representative data set and sophisticated methodology. The
message is stark: The world will be 50 years late in achieving its
global education commitments. On current trends, universal
primary completion will be achieved in 2042; universal lower
secondary completion in 2059; and universal upper secondary
completion in 2084. The poorest countries will achieve universal
primary education over 100 years later than the richest. The
principal conclusion is that, in low and middle income countries
alike, the SDG scenario requires an unprecedented break with
past trends if the attainment component of target 4.1 is to be
achieved.
Source: Barakat (2016).
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