A/HRC/16/45 43. It has been argued that early warning systems need to combine the collection of disaggregated quantitative data with more in-depth qualitative analysis.12 Such a course of action would enable the identification of complex interactions between political, social and economic factors that help determine whether violent conflict will break out, and if so, when. II. Protection of minority rights: a national tool for avoiding violent conflicts 44. Conflict prevention is not the sole positive outcome of respect for minority rights. Societies flourish when all voices are heard, when all opinions are considered; when all citizens participate; and when the talent that exists in all communities is enabled to contribute to political institutions. Inclusion is good for societies as a whole, not just for those previously left out. Consequently, creating the conditions for the effective participation of minorities should be considered by States as an integral aspect of good governance and a key priority in their efforts to ensure equality and non-discrimination. 45. Minorities are too often seen as a threat to the State and/or national unity. Governments may hold the erroneous views that national unity is fragile or that new States can be achieved only through the denial or disregard of distinctive aspects of the identity of minorities; that demands by minorities for an equal voice in policymaking will dissipate central authority; that respect for minority languages produces cleavages between ethnic groups or translates into prohibitive government expenditures; or that culturally defined production methods have no place in a modern economy. In such situations Governments may become nervous when ethnic, religious or linguistic groups attempt to assert their identity. There may be an assumption that what those groups want is to separate themselves from the State. However, many conflicts involving minorities start as peaceful demands to be included in the society on the basis of equal treatment.13 46. Many States are engaged in ongoing efforts to accommodate the interests of diverse communities. It is critical that the process be guided by the principles of equal treatment and non-discrimination. Communities that may be more populous, that have greater disruptive capacities or military strength or that may be more successful in commerce may emerge at an early stage as the principle contenders for distribution of political power and State resources. However, under such conditions, minority rights must be prioritized, enabling members of all minority groups to participate effectively in decisions affecting them and in all aspects of society. Efforts must be made to give voice to the diversity of members within minority communities, including women, youth and the elderly. 47. National human rights institutions that comply with the principles relating to the status of national institutions for the promotion and protection of human rights (“the Paris Principles”)14 can also play a constructive role in promoting the positive valuing of diversity and addressing issues that could cause conflict. Such institutions may include designated commissioners for minority issues, or separate, dedicated institutions may be established. 12 13 14 12 Conflict to Autonomy in Nicaragua: Lessons Learnt (London, Minority Rights Group International, 2007). J. A. Goldstone, “Using quantitative and qualitative models to forecast instability”, Special Report No. 204 (Washington, D.C., United States Institute of Peace, 2008). See International Council on Human Rights Policy, Negotiating Justice? Human Rights and Peace Agreements (Geneva, 2006), chap. VII. General Assembly resolution 48/134, annex.