A/HRC/49/46 (e) The extent to which local resources are exploited to the benefit of local (minority) populations, or perceived to be for the benefit of majority or dominant groups or elites;42 (f) Fears over a population influx in the traditional territories of minorities, particularly if perceived as linked to State policies favouring the transmigration or population transfers of members of the majority; (g) The perceived weakening of political participation and representation structures and institutions of minorities, such as autonomy arrangements, the guaranteed representation of minorities in elected bodies or employment proportion in State institutions, and changes to constitutional and legislative provisions removing or weakening the rights of minorities in education, language, or cultural or religious spheres. 55. Generally, however, the patterns are similar: long-standing claims of exclusion and inequalities of a significant and concentrated minority population that raise consistent red flags from a human rights point of view and provide potential warning signs for avoiding violent conflicts. Even efforts to alleviate inequalities and promote development often sidestep minorities or indigenous communities, and therefore risk adding fuel to grievances of exclusion and discrimination and accentuating the cleavages that could lead to conflicts. As UNDP has noted, minorities are among the poorest people in most countries. Poverty reduction strategies for minorities frequently lack thorough consideration of the root causes of poverty for minorities, in particular the role of discrimination. There is an urgent need to examine why minorities do not benefit equally from poverty reduction efforts and to respond with appropriate measures.43 56. With regard to these patterns of exclusion, discrimination and inequalities (that is, violations of the human rights of minorities), which can lead to contexts in which violent conflicts are more likely to erupt, it should be obvious that prevention can be most effective when preventive measures are taken to address the grievances around violations of the rights of minorities. Third-party engagement, including from international agencies and through other diplomatic efforts, is most essential before initial tensions degrade into actual violence. Once grievances of negation of the rights of minorities escalate into violence, the situation becomes much less amenable to compromise and de-escalation. 57. Unfortunately, the hope in 2010 that these common drivers of conflicts could be used to monitor patterns of economic and political exclusion with an analysis of the political and social context, allowing for an identification of the risk of escalation that is as accurate as possible went largely unheeded. 44 Despite the recommendation in the 2018 United Nations/World Bank joint report on the need to tackle the patterns of economic and political exclusion, the opportunity and appropriateness of using a minority rights framework as an early warning system for a significant proportion of the world’s conflicts has been almost completely – and surprisingly – omitted in most United Nations conflict prevention initiatives. 42 43 44 14 Not all development is good or fair development for minorities, if they do not equally benefit. From a human rights point of view, and consistent with the warning issued in the United Nations/World Bank Group report on inclusive approaches to preventing violent conflict, the development measures described above appear to have discriminated against indigenous and other minorities, with employment, profits and benefits funnelled mainly towards central authorities and with native minorities receiving little or no benefits, and in some cases massive damage to their local environment, dislocation and even increased poverty. In other words, development in these and many other cases may increase horizontal inequalities unless States are fully aware of the consequences of development on minorities and take active steps to measure the impact of development efforts on minorities and indigenous peoples, who may be more susceptible to systemic marginalization in many societies. (A/76/162, para. 74) UNDP, Marginalised Minorities in Development Programming: A UNDP Resource Guide and Toolkit (New York, 2010), p. 31. A/HRC/16/45, para. 42.